Maine Gubernatorial Primary Poll Update 9/13

The Maine View’s gubernatorial primary polls have been open for about 5 days now.  The response has been great.  A total of 262 votes have been cast so far.  If you have already voted thank you.  Tell a friend or fellow supporter of your candidate to vote as well.  If you haven’t voted yet, well there’s no time like the present.  Graphs and analysis after the cut.In the Democratic race, Rosa Scarcelli is the early front runner.  Scarcelli commands the Democratic field with 83% of the vote so far.  Her closest challenger is Libby Mitchell who has garnered 7% of the votes.  These results could mean a couple things.  Many of Scarcelli’s supporters could follow the megov hashtags, my twitter feed, or my blog.  Some might say this is not an accurate sample, but it is an accurate sample of a certain demographic; Tweeters and Maine’s blogging community.  If you look at the diverse people who blog and tweet in this state you see it is possible to get a good sample of the population online.  Of course the more people that vote the better the sample.  Moving on, the numbers could also reflect massive support for Scarcelli within the online community.  This is not hard to imagine.  Look at the twitter numbers.  Scarcelli has more followers and more tweets than her Democratic competition.  Scarcelli has also made good use of the megov hashtags, which could have boosted her numbers.

democratic primary 1

The Republican field is much closer than the Democrats.  More than twice as many votes have been cast for Republicans (170) than the Democrats (83).  Bruce Poliquin leads with 59% of the vote, followed by Matt Jacobson with 38% and Peter Mills with 4%.  Again one only needs to look at Poliquin’s Twitter and Facebook usage to see why he is leading.  Though Jacobson has a massive Twitter following, Poliquin is much more active on Twitter and makes extensive use of the megov hashtag.

Republican Primary 1

The Green party has received the least votes so far (9).  Lynne Williams received 78% while Patrick Quinlan received 22%.  With only 9 votes cast so far, I think we can say this is far from a good sample.

greenprimary1

UPDATE: Minutes after I posted this Jacobson jumped ahead of Poliquin.  Jacobson now leads with 51% (114 votes) to Poliquin’s 46% (102 votes).

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2 Responses

  1. As much as I appreciate the spirit behind the Mine 2010 Primary Poll I am really concerned that this sort of “faux election” is damaging to the spirit and substance of both real polling and real voting. This poll, while interesting in a Cosmo quiz sort of way, is neither statistically reliable nor accurate in a “one vote – one voter” sort of way. It allows a spirited voter to vote repeatedly and maybe what’s worse, a number of candidates and their enthusiastic supporters are using this poll as a way of demonstrating campaign strength among the voting public.

    This sort of vehicle is, in my view, damaging and inaccurate in a way that trivializes the process and clouds the issues. Please stop using such a vehicle without disclaiming its weaknesses. It’s not a good measure of anything other than the ability of a campaign to energize its supporters to load the ballot box (or in this case, repeatedly check the boxes.) Blogs are great and internet contests are fun, but this is really a hoax and should be explained CLEARLY as such.

  2. Brenda,

    I
    agree that it may not be an accurate survey of the likely voter population since this allows anyone to vote no matter where they live; however, this is a measure of the depth of a campaigns online support base. Those campaigns that have solid online strategies are clearly ahead of those with little or no dynamic online presence.

    I’m not sure that you can vote twice (at least I don’t know how). But, this poll is certainly a measure of effective campaign operations. Despite my Democratic registration, even I can assess that Poliquin has the best organized campaign and, perhaps, the most effective online campaign. He has weekly video updates, blogs several times a week, and even twitters relevant goings-on. It appears that Jacobson may have the most twitter followers, but he doesn’t blog or tweet relevant facts. The other Republicans have poorly designed websites (or steal Obama’s design) and virtually no online activity.

    Like him or not, Poliquin appear to have his sh#@ together and the poll demonstrates that.

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