The First Pick For Governor

Forecaster columnist Edgar Allen Beem has been a lightning rod for love/hate letters over past statements. Just look at the recent letters to the Forecaster concerning Beem: “Beem needs a time-out“, “Beem’s ‘satire’ hits the mark“, and “Beem has it all wrong“. Beem’s most recent column is sure to make 16 people very unhappy and one left smiling.

Beem has made his early picks for Governor. Les Otten and Rosa Scarcelli are Beem’s picks for top contenders (you’ll have to wait until the end for Beem’s final pick). What? No Libby Mitchell or Steve Rowe? No Matt Jacobson, Peter Mills, or Bruce Poliquin? No Lynne Williams? How did Beem arrive at Otten vs. Scarcelli?

Right out of the gate Beem cuts all the independents, “the field doesn’t have a Jim Longley or an Angus King in it this time”, and the Greens. These candidates, says Beem, will loose out in the money race once the campaigns heat up. Donna Dion, Dawn Hill, Matt Jacobson, and Bruce Poliquin also get lumped into this group. Jacobson did well during the first fundraising period. To say Poliquin did well is an understatement, even with his personal contribution. The assessment of candidates based on money alone leaves out so many other factors, new media and the candidate’s message to name two. I wouldn’t count Jacobson or Poliquin out yet by any means.

So, by Beem’s calculations we are down to Mills and Otten for Republicans and Mitchell, Rowe, and Scarcelli for Democrats. Mills gets cut for being too liberal. “but because I, a card-carrying liberal Democrat, might vote for him, his own reactionary party won’t. Mills would stand a better chance running as an independent.” As I’ve said here, Mills certainly has an opportunity to spin his recent votes and focus on his overall record to court Moderate Republicans and independents, who make up more of the Maine GOP than Beem seems to think.

Rowe has no steam left, according to Beem, two Dems left. Due to recent dissatisfaction with Augusta, Beem discounts Mitchell’s closeness to recent events. Even though they are out of Beem’s running, by this logic former Attorney General Rowe and Senator Mills would be out as well.

Now we are down to the final two, Otten and Scarcelli. Otten, Beem says, is old news. He has name recognition, but nothing else according to Beem. Scarecelli is by contrast a fresh outsider. Beem cites her business experience as a plus and likens her to a “female Obama”. “‘Rosa for Maine’ has a winning ring to it”, says Beam. I guess [insert candidate name] for governor/Maine just doesn’t work for anyone else.

If Mr. Beem’s prediction comes true and we do see Otten v. Scarcelli I will personally post an article stating he was right. The only part of Beem’s assessment that has a chance of coming to fruition is that an outsider could win the Blaine House. Then again, someone told me recently, once you are involved in politics you are a politician.

Anyone agree or disagree with Mr. Beem assessment of the campaign?

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4 Responses

  1. I think it could indeed be Scarcelli – but I happen to be of the mind that Les Otten is going to flame out in a blaze of not so much glory. Sure, I could be wrong, I just don't see it. I think on the Republican side we are in for a very Peter Cianchette kind of candidate… so Jacobson/Poliquin is who I'm betting my money on.

  2. Poliquin is someone, if you ever get a chance to meet him, has a certain energy (drink fifty energy drinks, and times that by fifty) that I think people will connect to getting things done. His fundraising (almost) proves this alone. The growth of his campaign staff is also another sign that his campaign is moving forward fast. Scarcelli seems like a common sense candidate, as in, she isn’t a partisan (insert descriptive expletives here) like so many other politicians are. As for Edgar isn’t part of becoming famous about causing a stir? Not to say he isn’t genuine about his feelings, but they seem to be picked to create controversy over “second best” or “dark horse” candidates rather than a logical endorsement of a candidate. As for Les Otten, I’ve met him, and he has an overwhelming tendency to use Red Sox analogies to explain things. Not only that, but the analogies are often philosophical which, for fact nuts like myself, is an easy way to lose an audience after ten minutes.

  3. I had to laugh a bit about the Otten analogies. Baseball analogies aren’t going to win me over either, but there is a certain segment that may connect with them. I haven’t read many of them personally, but people could get tired of that shtick quickly.

    Beem is a lightning rod. He often picks subjects that will most certainly draw attention. I can’t knock him for that too much. It gets people reading and talking. Hell, it got me to write a whole column.

  4. I think at some point during the race someone out there will scrutinize Rosa’s business background a bit. Simple questions will be asked like “How did you get started in your business?” among many others.

    Rosa’s business does good things for people in need but the business model isn’t something that exemplifies the kind of experience and leadership Maine needs.

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